PCa Mortality Rates

June 28, 2010

There was some correspondence recently regarding mortality

gives a good view of the position in the UK (with some reference to the

position in US). I have not found a similar site for the US figures,

although there are many statistics on the SEER site http://seer.cancer.gov/

also gives some interesting information. The data in both sites can, with a bit

of work, be extrapolated to show a comparative sets to the UK page. I have

not done so for some years because generally speaking there is a collective

yawn when statistics are mentioned, not to mention someone coming up with the

old saws such as ‘There are lies, damned lies and statistics’

You will see from the UK site (the first one above) that between

1971 and 1978 the mortality rate was fairly stable and about 19/20 deaths per

100,000 men. Once PSA testing was introduced, the rates climbed quite dramatically,

peaking in 1992 at 30 deaths per 100,000 men – an apparent increase of

50% which is a massive increase in population terms. After that the mortality

rate started dropping again (as did the incidence rate) and in the last year

reported (2008) the rate was 24 deaths per 100,000, still 20% higher than the

rate prior to PSA testing. You will find that claims of a drop in mortality

rates are, generally speaking, based on the reduction from the peak figure and

ignore the historical figures. Figures from the US and Australia show similar

profiles – an increase in mortality rates following the intrroduciton of

PSA testing followed by a fall in rates to similar levels that existed prior to

the test being introduced.

Although many people get quite hot under the collar

about the mortality rates (especially in the context of PSA Screening) I

believe the final paragraph of the UK site sums up the position quite

well:

<snip> As yet it is not possible to say what

proportion of the fall in prostate cancer mortality is the result of

improvements in treatment, changes in cancer registration coding, the

attribution of death to prostate cancer, and the effects of PSA testing. Only

the ongoing randomised controlled trials can provide definitive answers about

the efficacy of screening. <snip> ….and we know what happened when

the results of the first two randomised studies were published!!

All the best

Prostate men need enlightening, not frightening

Terry Herbert - diagnosed in 1996 and still going

strong

Read A Strange Place for unbiased information at http://www.yananow.net/StrangePlace/index.html

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