TS Eduoard targets HOU-GAL area

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CURRENT SITUATION (1845CDT08032008)

TS Eduard has formed south of Mobile AL - Bilouxi MS, approximately 420 miles

east of Galveston. The upper Texas coast is currently under a Tropical Storm

Watch. Models forecast a strike on the upper Texas coast, with highest incidence

being in the Houston Galveston area Tuesday AM.

 

For current NWS /NHC advisories: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

MY ANALYSIS

 

Probability of intensification is high. With movement of a high pressures system

over central Texas to the northeast, this allows for a continued western course

by Eduoard. Gulf water temperatures are 83-87degF, prime temperatures for

increasing the cycle. Combine that with the slow forward progression  (6 mph in

Westerly direction), this could be a moderate - high level Category 1

(Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricane upon landfall. Given that the most intense of

the weather occurs forward and to the right of forward progression, the

Galveston Bay area, central Galveston Island and N. Galveston / SE

counties are likely to receive the brunt of the effects of this storm.

 

For a good meterologist's thoughts and opinions:

 

http://weatherblog.abc13.com/2008/08/tropical-storm.html

RECOMMENDATIONS:

 

Go to www.ready.gov or your local Emergency Management website.

 

Preparedness is the key. Activate your family Hurricane Plan. Unless in a beach

area or other coastal low-lying areas, prepare to shelter in place. Continue to

watch for changes in weather conditions and any official announcements from

local government, usually through the city or county Emergency Management

office, and respond accordingly.

 

Best wishes and safety to all-

 

Larry

Houston Texas

 

" A prudent man foresees the difficulties ahead and prepares for them; the

simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences. "

Proverbs 22:3