Re: Recession

[Guest guest]

> What's all this about a recession ?

>

Well, all anyone can tell me about the UK is that a) it's raining

whenever I phone and they are going into recession and job losses

are happening all over the place, partic in IT and manufacturing (DH

is IT consultant for manufacturing - great eh?!)

> Debbie Slater

> Perth, WA

> (where there's a drought, but we've just managed to avoid a

recession)

I remember last year when we arrived all the talk in Australia was of

a bad year ahead and suspected recession. And of course the dollar

dived just after we arrived - no fun when you are being paid in

dollars and supporting a UK home. :-(

has 50% of reserves of water but expects to have 70% at this

time of year. Snow falls are expected this weekend (in the mountains,

not here in Melbourne) but Melbourne is predicted sunny and mild (18C)

over the weekend and early next week.

--

Sue

Melbourne Oz

[Guest guest]

> What's all this about a recession ?

>

Well, all anyone can tell me about the UK is that a) it's raining

whenever I phone and they are going into recession and job losses

are happening all over the place, partic in IT and manufacturing (DH

is IT consultant for manufacturing - great eh?!)

> Debbie Slater

> Perth, WA

> (where there's a drought, but we've just managed to avoid a

recession)

I remember last year when we arrived all the talk in Australia was of

a bad year ahead and suspected recession. And of course the dollar

dived just after we arrived - no fun when you are being paid in

dollars and supporting a UK home. :-(

has 50% of reserves of water but expects to have 70% at this

time of year. Snow falls are expected this weekend (in the mountains,

not here in Melbourne) but Melbourne is predicted sunny and mild (18C)

over the weekend and early next week.

--

Sue

Melbourne Oz

[Guest guest]

>>>What's all this about a recession ?

Well, you asked... (see below).

(PS Also copied in an article about what to do about it... not a lot by the

looks of it... other than keep having babies LOL).

Karina

Mum to Emilia (Oct 98) and Sebastian (Aug 00)

NATIONAL NEWS: Industry suffers worst quarter since 1991 ECONOMY RECESSION

CONFIRMED AS STATISTICIANS ESTIMATE TREND IN MANUFACTURING IS FOR FALL OF 5% A

YEAR:

Financial Times; Aug 7, 2001

By ED CROOKS

Manufacturing has suffered its worst quarter since 1991, official figures

showed, confirming that the industry has gone into recession.... (....)

.......The Recruitment and Employment Confederation said yesterday that job

advertising in national newspapers fell by 19.1 per cent in the year to June,

the steepest fall since 1991.

--------

FRONT PAGE - WEEKEND MONEY: Recession

Financial Times; Aug 4, 2001

By ISABEL BERWICK

The R word is all over the papers at the moment. You may think that the

press is generating all this ballyhoo because Big Brother has finished and

there's nothing left to write about, but you would be wrong. There must be

something in it if lazy journalists are getting overheated.

Okay, so how can I keep earning good money if we are about to hit the

buffers?

Recession-proof professions include the law and medicine. And the country

needs a lot more schoolteachers. The money may not be good, but public service

workers have secure pensions that are not dependent on stock market whims.

For those with a job, a recession can be a blessing. All those in-demand

restaurants suddenly offering empty tables for Friday nights. And you can always

get a cab when you need one. Plus, whisper it quietly, but there are

money-making opportunities for the seriously canny.

Really? How do I make money out of other people's misfortune?

You don't have to be nasty about it. The classic tactic is to buy stocks

immune to recession. We all have to eat and use the bathroom. So people getting

defensive tend to go for food retailers (Sainsbury has been included in the

ethical FTSE4Good index, so you can invest with a clean conscience) and utility

shares.

The downside is that plenty of shares in both these sectors have had a

dismal run - over the last three years United Utilities and Sainsbury have been

among the worst performers in the FTSE 100.

Enough already with the bleeding heart liberal stuff. Tell me where the

unethical money is?

It pains me to say it, but tobacco and drinks companies may be worth a

look. However bad things get, people still find cash for ciggies and a pint. In

fact, they might even spend more than they do when times are good. British

American Tobacco and ish & Newcastle both offer good dividend yields.

So the pubs will be full and the shops empty?

Not exactly. There are a couple of good high street recession bets.

There's Mothercare as a " wild card " entry. The company has new management and is

improving fast. It's a big brand name and people won't stop having kids just

because money is tight. Babies cheer people up, for some reason.

Or what about Boots? The share price isn't great but the dividend is good.

And we all need shampoo (although - and here's a thrifty FT tip - apparently you

can use washing-up liquid instead).

OK, if you are so clever, should I sell my Vodafone shares?

Sell now if you can't bear to hold and forget about them for a few years.

When money is tight, luxuries get ditched. A Mori survey recently asked 1,900

adults how they would cut back spending if household income was significantly

reduced. Most (52 per cent) would cut out foreign holidays, followed by the

second car (41 per cent), satellite or digital TV (36 per cent) and the mobile

phone (31 per cent). So you can forget about all those sectors.

Oh, and there's already a huge advertising slump in the media.

I'm willing to take a punt on long-term gains. Got any tips?

Over at Killik & Co they are tipping technology shares Psion, Bookham and

Autonomy on a five-year view. Or you could take a stake in a technology unit

trust fund. If you have serious spare cash to punt (say, Pounds 5,000-plus),

there are plenty of hedge funds. Even better, spread your risk using a

fund-of-funds of hedge funds.

I'm fed up with shares. My house is worth a small fortune and should pay

for my retirement. Tell me what I want to hear about house prices.

Sadly our brilliance does not extend to predictions about the future. You

need to call Mystic Meg for that. The more pessimistic souls believe the market

might go pear-shaped, especially in London, if the big hitters in the City stop

buying property at the top of the price range. But plenty of people think low

interest rates will keep the housing market on an even keel, even if prices stop

rising so steeply.

But if you use property as an investment and have bought into the

buy-to-let boom, then a recession may cause you more worries. Fewer jobs mean

fewer renters and if prices collapse you have lost capital as well as income.

Gloomy, moi? Isabel Berwick