the border

[Guest guest]

Following the breach of homeland security in the Northeast some 53 weeks

ago, I began to gather information on the impact of events on the Border,

particularly in relation to the undocumented labor force that enters and

exits the United States. Overall, official reports of arrests of persons

who cross the border illegally indicate a decrease over the past couple of

years, owing in part to increased use of fences and technology, including

shifts in operational strategies (eg, highway check-points) [1]; optimism

for an improved economy in Mexico in the past 18 months [2, 3]; and a rise

in the " state of alert " among border agents (sometimes called the Green

Fist) in the past 12 months [1, 4].

My reading of materials is that a drop in detentions through a process of

seeking to discourage illegal crossing was under way before 9-11-01, then

it accelerated greatly in the early months following 9-11. In recent

months, apprehensions may have returned to pre-Oct 2001 levels of a decline

in apprehensions somewhere between 20% to 30%. I base this interpretation

on what little data have been made available in news accounts, which are

limited to number of " captures " (an unfortunate term), rather than data on

successful crossing, and limitations of my efforts which were not

exhaustive. My interpretation is similar to that which appeared in two news

articles on September 16, 2002, one in The Arizona Daily Star and one in

the San Diego Union-Tribune, which say that illegal crossing arrests were

down 29% [4] or 28% [1] over the past year in the southwest, and that they

were down 24% last year from two years previous [4]. The higher percentage

from this past year (compared to two years ago) most likely is due to a

quick-rise in fewer detentions over a short period following 9-11-01.

From Oct 2001 through Jan 2002 the overall drop in apprehensions of the

undocumented was 45% across the four southwestern states, the lowest for

any comparable four-month period since computerization of border detentions

in 1985 [5]. For these four months (Oct thru Jan), crossing arrests dropped

27% in Texas, 48% in California (slightly less in San Diego at 39%) and 55%

in Arizona. Having low apprehension numbers, NM was not listed. There were

176,097 detentions from 10-01-01 through 1-31-02 across the four states,

compared to 320,367 for the same period of the previous year [5].

The Tucson Sector (Arizona) has a reputation of being the hot spot of the

Southwest for catching undocumented crossers [6, 7], which makes Arizona a

good case to put together a picture of illegal border crossing. The Arizona

percentage dips if we view a longer period. Apprehensions of illegal

entrants from 10-01-01 through 6-13-02 dropped 34.2% along the border in

Arizona [5], which includes all but a small area at Yuma (near California).

This percentage is down from Arizona's 55% over the shorter period from Oct

2001 through Jan 2002. There were 354,228 apprehensions from 10-01-00

through 6-13-01, compared to 233,083 from 10-01-01 through 6-13-02 [7].

Corresponding verification comes from businesses like motels on the border,

which reported a decline in business, and number of deaths (still

considerable) which decreased in illegal crossing areas [8]. One part of

the Tucson Sector, that of Cochise County, however, saw the number of

apprehensions increase (as well as the number of deaths). For this small

area, there were 3.16 times more detentions from 10-01-01 through 6-13-02

(n=45,737) than one year earlier from 10-01-00 through 6-13-01 (n=14,479)

[7]. There are probable reasons for this, which would require a longer

discussion.

There was an interesting news item in The Sierra Vista Herald on 9-10-01

[9], one day before 9-11 (the same number combination we use for emergency

assistance), which indicated that border apprehensions were down by 25.6%

in the Tucson sector. There were 433,764 arrests from 10-01-00 through

9-05-01 compared to 582,891 from 10-01-99 through 9-05-00 [similar report

in 10]. The three areas that comprise the Tucson sector varied from 43% to

31% to 9% (third percentage for the patrol station serving Cochise County

mentioned above).

And, finally, from the Associated Press [11], we learn that the number of

foreign-born becoming U.S. residents went past a million in 12 months from

Oct 2000 through Sep 2001. INS attributed the greater number to reduction

in delays in application processing. Interestingly, 61% of the applicants

already were living in the United States within a myriad of categories,

both documented and undocumented.

All news articles were posted by the Center for Immigration Studies.

1. " Arrests of Border Crossers Down by 28%, U.S. Says. " By Joe Cantlupe,

The San Diego Union-Tribune, September 16, 2002.

2. " Immigrant Arrest Drop is a Puzzle. " By Dane Schiller, The San

Express-News, February 10, 2002.

3. " Shadow Workers Immigrant Laborers Have Played a Big Role in Economic

Growth, But at a Price, Experts Say. " By Rebeca , The Fort Worth

Star-Telegram, September 7, 2001.

4. " Patrol Sees New Drop in Numbers of Crossers. " By Tim Stellar, The

Arizona Daily Star, September 16, 2002.

5. " Arrests on Border Fall after 9/11: No Clear Cause Is Cited. " By

A. Serrano, Los Angeles Times, February 2, 2002.

6. " Despite Deaths Due to Heat, Border Crossers Keep Coming in Force. " By

Tim Steller, The Arizona Daily Star, June 12, 2002.

7. " O'odham Vice Chairman, Pastor Ask U.S. to Call Off Operation

Gatekeeper. " By Tony and Ignacio Ibarra, The Arizona Daily Star, June

18, 2002.

8. " Arrests at U.S.-Mexico Border Fall. " By , The Associated

Press, June 6, 2002.

9. " Border Patrol Says Captures Are Down. " By Bill Hess, The Sierra Vista

Herald, September 10, 2001.

10. " More Immigrants Dying in Arizona Desert. " Agencia EFE, September 10,

2001.

11. " INS: New Residents Reach 1 Million. " By Suzanne Gamboa, The Associated

Press, August 30, 2002.