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Saw this in this month's Forbes Magazine when Mike (my son) and I were in

and Noble last night...

" Look.closely.right.now "

By Seely Brown

Lucent Technologies, the year 2000 opened with a flurry of negative rumors

on Internet bulletin boards and chat rooms. Then on January 6, the company

put out a press release with an earnings warning, seeming to indicate that

people posting on bulletin boards and in chat rooms really did have a good

idea of what was going on-despite their flaky online names such as " hot

like-wasabe " " brain-and-the-kahuna, and " Floydian-us. "

So in late March, when the Lucent discussion on Yahoo carried rumors of

further problems in the second quarter, onlookers paid attention. On March

22, " kahuna - and - the-brain " guessed that there might be another earnings

warning. Then, just before New York markets closed, " hot-like-wasabe "

forwarded an item under the heading " LUCENT RELEASES EARNINGS WARNING!

DAMN! " The item forwarded was a press release similar to the one in January,

another earnings warning. Next, " Floydian-Us " sent the press release to some

20 different message boards along with the comments of a disappointed

investor. As the news spread, Lucent's stock began to sink.

But the " news " was pure fabrication. The press release was a fake. Before

Lucent was able to get an authentic press release out, its stock value had

dropped some $7 billion. Of course, anyone buying while the price was down

made a killing when things returned to normal. As the SEC discovered later,

one such buyer was operating under the names " kahuna_and-the-brain, "

" hot-like-wasabe " and " Floydian-us. " A single person had orchestrated this

trio of online identities, using names very close to those of established

hands on the message boards. What's in a name? Some $7 billion, it appears.

This sort of fraud wasn't developed by the Internet. Nearly 200 years ago, a

messenger rushed from the English coast to London and announced Napoleon's

defeat, sending the price of stocks skyrocketing. However, the whole thing

was a ruse. The year was 1814, and Napoleon's fall at Waterloo was a year

away. The messenger's ride was just a clever ploy.

Both examples remind us that in turbulent times-in particular, political, or

technological revolutions -truth can be hard to read. (Which is why Senator

Hiram said in 1917 that truth is the " first casualty " of war.)

...

RR

Rutledge, M.D., F.A.C.S.

The Center for Laparoscopic Obesity Surgery

4301 Ben lin Blvd.

Durham, N.C. 27704

Telephone #:

Fax #:

Email: DrR@...

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