Study Indicates No Natural Limit To Life Expectancy

[Guest guest]

Hi All,

Interesting how, in so little time, the imagined barriers to human life span

have been blown away.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/05/020510074327.htm

Source: Duke University (http://www.duke.edu/)

Date: Posted 5/10/2002

Study Indicates No Natural Limit To Life Expectancy

DURHAM, N.C. -- The lifespans of people in developed nations are increasing at a

remarkably constant rate, suggesting

that there is no natural limit on life expectancy, said a Duke University

researcher in an article in the May 10, 2002,

Science. Data analyzed by the scientists indicate that the maximum human

lifespan will reach 100 in about six decades,

which policymakers should consider as they make critical resource decisions

affecting older adults.

Study co-authors are Duke University research scientist W. Vaupel,

director of the Program on Population, Policy

and Aging at Duke's Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy; and Jim Oeppen

with the Cambridge Group for the History of

Population and Social Structure, Cambridge University, England.

In their study, Vaupel and Oeppen reviewed longevity data from developed

countries, including Australia, Iceland, Japan,

the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.S. They found that life

expectancy in such countries is steadily

increasing by three months a year, per year.

" The key issue for policymakers to understand from our study is that there

appears to be no finite limit to life

expectancy, " says Vaupel. " This has major implications for social issues such as

budget allocations for the old and very

old, and projections used to determine future pension, healthcare and other

needs. "

Vaupel is also head of the Laboratory of Survival and Longevity at the Max

Planck Institute for Demographic Research in

Germany. The study was funded by the Max Planck Institute and the U.S. National

Institute on Aging.

World life expectancy more than doubled over the past two centuries, from

roughly 25 years to about 65 for men and 70

for women. Despite evidence to the contrary, " students of mortality… blindly

clung to the ancient notion that under

favorable conditions the typical human has a characteristic lifespan, " the

authors noted in the article. " Experts have

been unable to imagine a lifespan that could rise further, " leading to " the

notion of a fixed lifespan. " Such a notion,

the study noted, " is distorting public and private decision-making. "

The researchers emphasize they are not saying there is no limit to the rise in

life expectancy. " There may or may not be

some limit at some advanced age -- it is impossible to tell given current

empirical data and theoretical knowledge, "

added Vaupel. " What is clear is that there is no limit that we are about to bump

up against. "

" Among nations today, the longest expectation of life – almost 85 years – is

enjoyed by Japanese women, " the article

noted. The four-decade increase in life expectancy in 16 decades is so

extraordinarily linear that it " may be the most

remarkable regularity of mass endeavour ever observed, " the study notes. If the

trend continues as it has, " record life

expectancy will reach 100 in about six decades. " While this will never lead to

immortality, " It is striking that

centenarians may become commonplace within the lifetimes of people alive today, "

the authors add.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note: This story has been adapted from a news release issued by Duke University

for journalists and other members of the

public. If you wish to quote from any part of this story, please credit Duke

University as the original source. You may

also wish to include the following link in any citation:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/05/020510074327.htm

========================

Good health & long life,

Greg ,

http://optimalhealth.cia.com.au