News Story - Expert: Asteroid May Hit Earth but Don't Panic

July 24, 2002

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Expert: Asteroid May Hit Earth but Don't Panic

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Expert: Asteroid May Hit Earth but Don't Panic

Wed Jul 24, 9:01 AM ET

By Kate Kelland

LONDON (Reuters) - A massive asteroid could hit Earth in

just 17 years' time, destroying life as we know it, a British

space expert said Wednesday.

The asteroid -- the most threatening object ever detected

in space -- is 1.2 miles wide and apparently on a direct

collision course with Earth.

"Objects of this size only hit the Earth every one or two

million years," said Dr. Benny Peiser, an asteroid expert at

Liverpool 's University in northern England.

"In the worst case scenario, a disaster of this size would

be global in its extent, would create a meltdown of our

economic and social life, and would reduce us to dark age

conditions," he told Reuters.

But Peiser and other space experts say they are pretty

confident this nightmare scenario will not come about.

"This thing is the highest threat that has been cataloged,

but the scale in terms of the threat keeps changing," said

Bond, spokesman for the Royal Astronomical Society.

"If it did hit the Earth it would cause a continental-size

explosion ... but it is a fairly remote possibility."

The asteroid -- named 2002 NT7 -- was first detected

earlier this month by the United States Linear sky survey

program.

Since then, Peiser said scientists at the U.S. National

Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA (

news -

web sites)) near-Earth

objects team and at Pisa University in Italy have carried out

orbit calculations to work out the probability and potential

date of impact to define the risk it poses.

Their calculations show it could hit the earth on February

1, 2019.

"The impact probability is below one in a million, but

because the first impact date is so early -- only 17 years from

now -- and the object is very large, it's been rated on the

impact risk Palermo Scale as a positive," Peiser said. "It is

the first object which has ever hit a positive rating."

Scientists warn, however, that the risk rating has not been

reviewed by the International Astronomical Union, which is the

main international body responsible for announcing such risks.

Peiser said 2002 NT7 would continue to be monitored by

space experts across the world, and that over time, these

observations would probably erase the threat posed by it.

"In all likelihood, in a couple of months additional

observations will eliminate this object from the list of

potential impacts," he said. "I am very confident that

additional observations over time will...show that it is

actually not on a collision course with Earth."

But he warned that the world should take this as wake-up

call and set about preparing for the reality of an asteroid hit

in the future.

"Sooner or later -- and no one can really tell us which it

will be -- we will find an object that is on a collision

course. That is as certain as "Amen" in church. And eventually

we will have to deflect an object from its collision course,"

he said.

At the moment, he added, scientists fear it could take at

least 30 years for the world to be able to devise and set up a

mission to deal with such a threat -- a timescale which would

be woefully inadequate if the 2019 strike were to happen.

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