Maybe we need an extreme, alarmist tone to Wake Us Up!!

[Guest guest]

(what do you want to bet that some eager entrepreneur makes a fortune on

alpine meadow tours. " see the meadows before they disappear in your

lifetime! " )

http://www.msnbc.com/msn/418229.asp

Report: Warming will reshape U.S.

'National assessment' by scientists also has its critics

WASHINGTON, June 9 - Alpine meadows will disappear, along with many coastal

wetlands and barrier islands. Cities will be hotter and more humid. Ski runs

will be scarcer, the demand for air conditioners will increase and

scientists will have to combat a likely resurgence in insect-borne diseases

such as malaria. This is part of a new weather forecast for the late 21st

century that sees average U.S. temperatures 5 degrees to 10 degrees warmer

than today.

ASSAILED BY some critics as too pessimistic and little more than guess work,

that assessment - made by a dozen government agencies and hundreds of

scientists in and out of government - is of a country coping with global

warming.

The report, four years in the making, is the first-ever detailed " national

assessment " of what a much warmer climate could bring unless steps are taken

to curb manmade emissions of " greenhouse " gases like carbon dioxide. It is

the product of numerous workshops and reviews by hundreds of scientists who

examined global warming's likely regional impacts as well as its effect on

human health, agriculture, forests and coastal areas across the country.

Titled " Climate Change in America, " it is likely to be released next week

and later presented to Congress, which asked for the assessment a decade

ago. The Associated Press obtained a late draft of the report's overview

summary.

TOO DARK A FORECAST?

Critics argue the analysis is little more than guess work and that computer

climate models - heavily relied upon in the assessment - are still too

simplistic and cannot predict impacts on a regional basis.

" This document is an evangelistic statement about a coming apocalypse, not a

scientific statement about the evolution of a complicated system with

significant uncertainties, " Christy, a climatologist at the University

of Alabama-Huntsville, wrote during a review of an early draft of the

128-page overview.

Christy, who is among a group of scientists skeptical about the likelihood

of significant global warming, did not return telephone calls seeking to

know whether his views have changed about later drafts.

Other critics have charged the report plays down potential benefits of

warming - increased crop yields and warmer winters that may make life more

pleasant in some areas, for example.

The Greenhouse Effect

. Without it, we couldn't live here. A look at why the Earth is a warm and

cozy place.

The document acknowledges " a complex mix of positive and negative impacts "

if, as many climate scientists predict, pollution in the atmosphere raises

temperatures worldwide by an average of 4 degrees to 9 degrees over the next

100 years.

An early draft of the overview summary was attacked in December as having

" an extreme, alarmist tone " on predicting impact on human health. The

summary has been revised with more emphasis on the uncertainties of

predicting health impacts.

STARK PROJECTIONS

The report concludes that " based on the best available information, most

Americans will experience significant impacts " if Earth warms at projected

rates based on recent trends. Among the possibilities:

. Entire ecosystems might shift northward as temperatures increase.

. The Alpine meadows of the Rocky Mountains likely would disappear.

. Forests in the Southeast might break into " a mosaic of forests, savannas

and grasslands " and sugar maples could disappear from Northeastern forests.

. Ocean levels would rise, causing wetlands, marshes and barrier islands to

disappear or - when the geography allows - be force inland.

. The Great Lakes are predicted to decline because of increased evaporation

causing yet different problems.

. Some coastal cities, faced with sea level rise and more frequent storm

surges, might have to redesign and adapt water, sewer and transportation

systems. The study does not attempt to put a cost to such improvements.

WARMING TRENDS

The study also says higher temperatures and increased rainfall likely would

exacerbate air pollution, saddle large cities with more frequent and severe

heat waves, and lead to the spread of waterborne or insect-carrying diseases

including malaria in the Southeast.

Warmer weather would reduce the mountain snowpack, curtailing the summer

runoff that feeds irrigation across much of the West and complicating water

management.

Tree, fish and animal species would migrate northward everywhere. In

the Pacific Northwest, the salmon might shift north to Alaska, replaced by

warmer water species. In Alaska, the rising temperature could cause further

thawing of permafrost, damaging roads and buildings.

Among the positive prospects, the study says, are that:

. Trees would grow faster and the amount of timber in America's forests -

especially hardwoods - would increase steadily through the century.

. Farmers would be able to grow more crops, although both in agriculture

and forestry, there could be increased threats from pests and fire.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is overseeing the national

assessment, has additional background and earlier reports online at

www.nacc.usgcrp.gov

Public input is also being sought on draft reports as they are made public.

So far reports on water and health areas are available for review.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.