Failure to Recognize Failings in Reasoning.

[Guest guest]

Again, this was to have been included in the list

of causes of failures in alternative cancer

treatments, but as I wanted to add an additional

comment I am posting it separately.

(From the Monday seminars)

Failure to Recognize Failings in Reasoning. When

presented with the same set of facts, rational

people will come to a wide variety of conclusions

– sometimes diametrically opposed. Now, add to

this all the wrong-headed or irrational

predispositions that all of us have. It could be

impatience, or misunderstanding the nature of

one’s cancer, or misinterpreting test results, or

unconscious avoidance of any unwanted news, or

balking at learning any new technical

explanation, or perhaps our thinking is distorted

by panic, fear, or depression.

The central problem is not our screwed up

brains. We can actually perform rather well in

spite of our looniness. Every day tens of

millions of morons and lunatics drive billions of

miles in the planet’s 700 million cars and there

are far fewer crashes than one might

think. Human survival instinct redirects the

vast majority of our self-destructive thoughts.

The central problem is that in alternative cancer

treatment there is NEVER enough evidence, NEVER a

clear, rational path. This is a sad fact of life.

The way to deal with this is to recognize one

additional fact: Intelligent reflection will

USUALLY guide us to smart decisions in spite of

inadequate evidence and every imaginable mental frailty.

As an example, not a week goes by that I don’t

hear some form of “I can’t afford the recommended

treatment because I spent the last of my savings

on _____.” And this would be some exciting

device or some proprietary supplement. One of

our better tools to screen potential treatments

is to ask ourselves a few common sense questions

just as if we were making a calculated business

decision: “What is the best possible outcome? The

worst possible outcome? The most likely

outcome?” It will be a rare day that the most

likely outcome would justify borrowing money or

spending the last of your savings.