Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in a Jaipur Hospital

August 31, 2009

Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and prediction of future trends in north-west region of

India: A six-year ICTC-based study

Nitya Vyas, Saroj Hooja, Parul Sinha, Anuj Mathur, Anita Singhal, Leela Vyas

Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Sawai Man Singh Medical College,

Jaipur, India. Correspondence Address: Parul Sinha

Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Sawai Man Singh Medical College,

Jaipur India

Indian Journal of Community Medicine

Year: 2009 | Volume : 34 | Issue : 3 | Page : 212-217

Background: The study was conducted to analyze previous six-year prevalence data

of HIV infection in the Northwest region of India and predict future trends for

a couple of years. Objectives: The study was conducted to aid SACS and NACO to

plan and arrange resources for the future scenario. Materials and Methods: All

the attendees of ICTC, Jaipur, from January 2002 to December 2007 were included

and variables like age, sex, marital status, occupation, place of residence,

pattern of risk behavior and HIV serostatus were studied.

As per the strategy and policy prescribed by NACO, tests (E/R/S) were performed

on the serum samples. Data was collected; compiled and analyzed using standard

statistical methods. Future trends of HIV-prevalence in north-west India were

anticipated.

Results: The overall positivity rates among attendees of ICTC, were found to be

12.2% (386/3161), 11.8% (519/4381), 11.1% (649/5867), 13% (908/6983), 14%

(1385/9911) and 17.34% (1756/10133) in the years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006

and 2007 respectively.

Future trends for the next couple of years depict further increase in prevalence

without any plateau. Conclusion: Epidemiological studies should be carried out

in various settings to understand the role and complex relations of innumerable

behavioral, social and demographic factors, which will help, interrupt and

control the transmission of HIV/ AIDS

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