Method of estimating new HIV infections

[Guest guest]

Dear all,

Probably this is stupid question still may be worth sharing.

I see various statistics from

varying sources many claim the prevalence of HIV is decreasing.

Does it mean that we are allowing more people to die in comparison to  the the

new infections?

If new infections and death are equal the prevalence should remain the same. If

new infections are less than the number of deaths we should still see

an increasing prevalence. 

I am also interested to know how the new infections are estimated 

regards 

--

Dr Ajithkumar.K

Asst Professor In Dermatology and Venereology

Medical college Chest Hospital

MG Kav,Trichur, Kerala ,India

Ph 04872333322 (res)

9447226012

E-MAIL: <ajisudha@...>

[Guest guest]

Dear All,

Re: /message/12314

Thats a vital question by Dr Ajithkumar and one to strike first before

relying on the statistics.

The prevalence is bound to increase if the mortality is reduced and lives

prolonged by use of HAART and even if incidence is reduced.

Prevalence can come down only if deaths exceed the new infections in absence of

emigration of those infected.

Dr. Balraj Singh,

Assistant Professor (Epidemiology),

Indira Gandhi Medical College,

Shimla, Himachal Pradesh

e-mail: <drbalraj@...>

[Guest guest]

No one really knows!

Re: /message/12314

Our data set are estimates-best estimates from available data

researched,reported ,verified,verifiable and not so verifiable!

Then comes the projections ,again, based on assumptions/presumptions and some

real ,reported data set.

How does it really matter as long as we continue to work for care,cure and

prevention

regards,

Baxi

RK.Baxi

e-mail: <rkbaxi196@...>

[Guest guest]

Dear All,

Re: /message/12314

Please find a press release report on HIV Estimation done using Spectrum & EPP

modelling method..

Regards

--

Dr. Laxmikant Chavan

MD,DNB

Epidemiologist,

drlbchavan@...

Cell: +91-9904379545

1 of 1 File(s)

NACO Press Release on HIV Estimates_01 Dec 10.pdf

[Guest guest]

Method of estimating new HIV infections

Re: /message/12314

Indeed a vital question by Dr. Ajitkumar that with declining mortality the

prevalence should increase.

 

One possible reason for lack of this trend in India is the estimation of HIV

prevalence for general population based of the HIV prevalence among women

attending ANC.

 

Especially with increasing up-take of HIV testing there is increasing proportion

of women who know about their HIV status. And making the assumption that the

fertility desires of women are not affected after they know about their HIV

status could be misleading.

 

Decline in fertility among women after knowing their HIV status might affect

their attendance at ANC clinics and thus affect HIV prevalence estimation.

 

Therefore, in this scenario, inspite of decrease in the mortality the

prevalence, which is mainly estimated from ANC, can show reduction.

 

However, currently we do not have any data from India investigating fertility

rate among women after they know about their HIV status hence this proposition

can not be supported with any data or evidence.

 

Dr. Shirish Darak,

PhD student, University of Groningen ,

The Netherlands

Member, PRAYAS Health Group, Pune

e-mail: <shirishdarak@...>