Almost 100% of Americans obese by 2030

[Guest guest]

This was in my local paper. Thought was interesting and Scary!

Idaho Statesman Edition Date: 10-31-2002

Americans tip the scale

Twin scourge of weight and diabetes could bankrupt the health care

system

If Americans keep putting on the pounds at the current rate, almost

everyone is going to be overweight by 2030, a top obesity researcher

says.

And this probably will lead to a skyrocketing number of people who

develop diabetes, a disease that can have catastrophic health

consequences, including heart attacks, strokes, blindness, kidney

disease and amputations, experts say. Ultimately, treating the

disease and its complications could bankrupt the health care system,

they warn.

" I think everyone is going to get fat, " says weight-loss researcher

Foreyt of the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston. " The

obesity epidemic is going to continue. I believe that. I´m not just

talking to be an alarmist. And it´s not just cosmetic; it´s a serious

problem. "

These grim projections from some of the nation´s top obesity and

diabetes doctors are based on new government statistics showing that

almost 65 percent of American adults, or more than 120 million

people, are overweight or obese.

About 31 percent of adults older than 20 are obese, defined as

roughly 30 pounds or more over healthy body weight, and 34 percent

are overweight, which is about 10 to 30 pounds above a healthy

weight.

Foreyt predicted in a 1995 scientific journal article that almost

everyone in the United States would be overweight or obese by 2230.

Now he has moved that up 200 years. At the rate we´re going, he says,

almost everyone could be not just overweight, but obese, by 2100.

In reality, Foreyt and others say, we won´t reach a point at which

every single American will weigh too much. Some small percentage,

possibly 5 percent to 15 percent, probably will be able to maintain a

healthy weight because they are genetically protected, or they are

willing to carefully watch what they eat and be fairly active. But

they will be part of an ever-increasing minority, Foreyt says.

That´s a serious problem not only for Americans´ health, which will

be at growing risk for diabetes, heart disease, liver disease, cancer

and other health problems, but also for the health care system. Some

experts predict it could buckle under the weight of these obesity-

related complications.

Of greatest concern is diabetes, " the most prevalent, serious medical

complication of being overweight and obese, " says Klein,

president of the North American Association for the Study of Obesity.

Reflecting scientific concern over the confluence of diabetes and

obesity, the American Diabetes Association is collaborating with

NAASO at the obesity researchers´ annual meeting next fall.

Diabetes is a condition in which the body does not make enough of the

hormone insulin, or it doesn´t use the insulin properly. Insulin

helps sugar get into cells, where it is used for energy. If not

enough insulin is produced or if insulin does not function normally,

sugar builds up in the blood, damaging nerves and blood vessels.

" There´s an incredibly strong link between obesity and diabetes,

linked to the inability of the body to make use of sugars normally, "

says pediatric endocrinologist Francine Kaufman, president of the

American Diabetes Association. As weight increases, the body produces

extra insulin, but " there gets to be a point, and we don´t understand

why, " at which the body´s need for insulin surpasses its ability to

produce it, she says.

Type 2 diabetes is the most common form, affecting up to 95 percent

of the more than 17 million Americans who have the disease. Unlike

type 1, or juvenile, diabetes, which is caused by destruction of

insulin-producing cells in the pancreas, type 2 is associated with a

combination of genetics, excess weight and a lack of exercise. Those

result in a cascade of physical changes leading to the disease.

Cost of obesity: $123B in 2001

Experts say the United States and other countries simply can´t afford

to deal with the problem. Obesity cost the United States about $123

billion in 2001, including direct health care costs for diseases

related to obesity and indirect costs such as loss of productivity,

according to an analysis by Anne Wolf of the University of Virginia.

" We calculated that 61 percent of diabetes is attributed to obesity, "

Wolf says. The direct cost of obesity is about 30 percent higher than

coronary heart disease, she says.

" Diabetes is going to be the way this obesity epidemic breaks the

bank, " says Hill, director of the Center for Human Nutrition at

the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center in Denver.

Foreyt agrees. " We´re just not prepared from a health care point of

view to handle the type 2 diabetes we´re going to see in the next few

years. "

´A problem of our children´

Type 2 diabetes is on the rise in all age groups. Until about 20

years ago, it almost never occurred in teens or children, but doctors

say almost half the new cases of diabetes diagnosed in kids are type

2.

Because an estimated 20 percent to 30 percent of American children

are either overweight or at risk of becoming so, the rates of

diabetes in teens and young adults in just a few years could be

staggering, experts say.

" What used to be a disease of our parents and grandparents is now a

problem of our children, " Kaufman says.

The costs will be felt not only by individuals and families, but also

by society as a whole, she says. " This could impact on the workforce

in the next generation. "

Hill and colleagues are treating children as young as 11 with the

disease.

" We are seeing a lot of type 2 diabetes in overweight children, and

these are just the ones that come in. The speculation is that there

are a bunch of overweight kids who have it, but who don´t know they

have it, " Hill says. " This is new to our medical system to be

treating this in children. We have no idea what a 12-year-old with

this disease will look like at 40 or 50, or even if they´ll make it

to 50. "

Experts believe genetics plays a key role in who develops diabetes.

Some people will never become diabetic even though they are very fat,

but others have a genetic predisposition and might develop it even if

they are just a few pounds overweight, says Xavier Pi-Sunyer, chief

of endocrinology at St. Luke´s-Roosevelt Hospital in New York.

That genetic liability is highest in certain ethnic groups, such as

Native Americans, Mexican-Americans and other Hispanics, he says. For

example, he says, about 70 percent of Pima Indians are overweight,

and about 50 percent are diabetic.

Once a person has diabetes, it can lead to a host of other health

care issues, especially if it is not controlled.

" The biggest problem with diabetic patients is they have a higher

rate of heart disease, " Pi-Sunyer says. " They are more likely to die

of heart attacks and strokes. "

Yet studies show that by keeping blood pressure, cholesterol and

blood-sugar levels under control, people with diabetes can reduce the

risk of complications. For every 1 percent reduction in blood-sugar

levels, there is a 40 percent reduction in risk for eye, kidney and

nerve diseases; for every 10-point reduction in systolic blood

pressure (the top number), the risk of any complication from diabetes

is reduced 12 percent; improving cholesterol and triglycerides

reduces cardiovascular complications by 20 percent to 50 percent.

Stop obesity, stymie diabetes

" One thing we really have to do in this country is to start treating

obesity as an illness, " says Matt sen of the American Diabetes

Association. " We know the primary risk factor for type 2 diabetes is

obesity. If we can stop people from getting obese, we could prevent a

significant amount of type 2 diabetes. "

Research shows that if patients at high risk for developing diabetes

make lifestyle changes - exercise regularly and lose 5 percent to 7

percent of their weight - they can decrease their chance of

progressing to diabetes by 58 percent.

Type 2 diabetes is very sensitive to weight loss, says Wolf of the

University of Virginia. When diabetics lose a few pounds, it can

improve glucose control, she says.

" It is so amazing to see that a small weight loss can improve health

and quality of life and get these people off some of their

medications, " Wolf says.

" We´re seeing reductions in health care costs, and the study patients

feel so good about themselves. "

[Guest guest]

Welcome to the group Leisa. Hope to hear from you soon again.

There are many other newbies we've never heard from. Please post and

introduce yourselves. If you have questions, we're here to help.

on 11/1/2002 11:18 AM, lhiatt3 at lhiatt3@... wrote:

> This was in my local paper. Thought was interesting and Scary!

>

> Idaho Statesman Edition Date: 10-31-2002

>

> Americans tip the scale

>

> Twin scourge of weight and diabetes could bankrupt the health care

> system