Re: Annual Survey of CRONies??

[Guest guest]

Rodney: a wonderful idea! Especially if you're willing to run it. We can

do it on the " database " section of the site. Many of us (myself included)

have not reached the 4 year mark but so what?

OTOH, it will be difficult to assess whether the person is doing CRON

correctly. As you have seen some have spiriled into eating disorders - some

do not bother with ON etc. We're all individuals and it's going to be much

more difficult to assess just WHAT we're individually doing (since we're not

in a lab where we can be all fed the same amount and the same thing). So

there are problems. Nevertheless, we can set it up - nothing lost by

trying.

on 11/2/2003 8:10 AM, Rodney at perspect1111@... wrote:

> If we know, or can find, the death rates by gender and age of the

> overall population (shouldn't be difficult, especially if an actuary

> is lurking here); can find enough members willing to take part; can

> find someone willing to assume the annual survey workload; can locate

> someone able, and willing, to do the data analysis (I would be happy

> to volunteer for that if no actuary is present); then in a couple of

> years we should easily be able to see much lower mortality within the

> group than among the general population of equivalent age. Among

> other things that would provide us with extra motivation to continue

> with CRON.

>

> 'Participation in the survey' would mean providing: gender and date

> of birth; an approximate date of initiation of CRON; primary and

> secondary email addresses to which surveys would be sent; a

> telephone number to use in the event there is no response to an

> annual survey request; and a name, address, phone number and email

> address of a next of kin, with whom a check can be made if all other

> contact attempts are unsuccessful.

>

> The key survey question would simply be: " Are you still alive? " !!!

> Any answer will be taken to be a 'YES' ; ^ ) There may be other

> survey questions that would be helpful also.

>

> Just a thought.

>

> Rodney.

>

[Guest guest]

Hi Francesca:

I am not sure I am competent to set up the database, although I just

tried to set up a table and it didn't seem that difficult. Are we

limited to ten columns of data? I do think I am competent to do the

analysis, if there isn't anyone else more qualified - an actuary

would be the ideal choice for that.

Also there is the question of confidentiality of information. Not

everyone is going to want their dob and necessary details of their

next of kin (NoK) in a database widely available on the internet, for

example.

There is also the issue of how many people would be interested. If

it is only 100 then the sample would be too small. If it is 1000 or

more then the workload might be excessive, I think. I am not sure

what would be a statistically relevant sample size for something like

this, where the variable of greatest significance - death - is likely

to be a rather infrequent occurrence. I work an eight to ten hour

days, so I am not swamped with spare time.

I wonder if Dr. Walford would have any suggestions as to how to

handle such a survey? (And also whether he thinks it would be worth

the effort).

[The key issue here is to try to see whether we can find evidence, in

a human sample, of a dramatic decline in age-specific mortality

within four years of initiation of CRON, as appears to be the case

with fruit flies - (Mair, Goymer, Pletcher, Partridge). If the fruit

fly model works in humans one would think that the effect might be

cumulative with a maximum reduction in mortality at four years and

beyond. So those who initiated CRON only two years ago would be

expected to see a partial, but still substantial, reduction in

mortality].

Rodney.

>

> > If we know, or can find, the death rates by gender and age of the

> > overall population (shouldn't be difficult, especially if an

actuary

> > is lurking here); can find enough members willing to take part;

can

> > find someone willing to assume the annual survey workload; can

locate

> > someone able, and willing, to do the data analysis (I would be

happy

> > to volunteer for that if no actuary is present); then in a couple

of

> > years we should easily be able to see much lower mortality within

the

> > group than among the general population of equivalent age. Among

> > other things that would provide us with extra motivation to

continue

> > with CRON.

> >

> > 'Participation in the survey' would mean providing: gender and

date

> > of birth; an approximate date of initiation of CRON; primary and

> > secondary email addresses to which surveys would be sent; a

> > telephone number to use in the event there is no response to an

> > annual survey request; and a name, address, phone number and email

> > address of a next of kin, with whom a check can be made if all

other

> > contact attempts are unsuccessful.

> >

> > The key survey question would simply be: " Are you still

alive? " !!!

> > Any answer will be taken to be a 'YES' ; ^ ) There may be other

> > survey questions that would be helpful also.

> >

> > Just a thought.

> >

> > Rodney.

> >

[Guest guest]

Hi Francesca:

It would be perfect if the results showed there to be a 'dose

response' relationship of some kind .......... Twenty percent

reduction in mortality in year one; forty percent in year two; 60% in

year three; and 80% in year four, for example.

Or something like that. Intuitively my guess is that it wouldn't be

precisely linear - more likely something like 35%; 55%; 70%; 80% (if

80% is the right cumulative result).

Rodney.

> >

> > > If we know, or can find, the death rates by gender and age of

the

> > > overall population (shouldn't be difficult, especially if an

> actuary

> > > is lurking here); can find enough members willing to take part;

> can

> > > find someone willing to assume the annual survey workload; can

> locate

> > > someone able, and willing, to do the data analysis (I would be

> happy

> > > to volunteer for that if no actuary is present); then in a

couple

> of

> > > years we should easily be able to see much lower mortality

within

> the

> > > group than among the general population of equivalent age.

Among

> > > other things that would provide us with extra motivation to

> continue

> > > with CRON.

> > >

> > > 'Participation in the survey' would mean providing: gender and

> date

> > > of birth; an approximate date of initiation of CRON; primary

and

> > > secondary email addresses to which surveys would be sent; a

> > > telephone number to use in the event there is no response to an

> > > annual survey request; and a name, address, phone number and

email

> > > address of a next of kin, with whom a check can be made if all

> other

> > > contact attempts are unsuccessful.

> > >

> > > The key survey question would simply be: " Are you still

> alive? " !!!

> > > Any answer will be taken to be a 'YES' ; ^ ) There may be

other

> > > survey questions that would be helpful also.

> > >

> > > Just a thought.

> > >

> > > Rodney.

> > >