DEEP THOUGHTS.

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These deep thoughts of colleague economists were originally collected by Hiroyuki Kawakatsu How to do research Keep the ass to the chair. - Buchanan Everything has been thought before, but the problem is to think of it again. -Goethe Concepts without perceptions are empty; perceptions without concepts are blind. -Kant Mathematics has no symbols for confused ideas. - Stigler All models are wrong but some are useful.

- Box Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise. -J. Tukey The paradox is now fully established that the utmost abstractions are the true weapons with which to control our thought of concrete fact. -A. Whitehead In the long-run, there's just another short-run. -Abba Lerner Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards. -Kierkegaard Someone once said about partisan analysts that they use economic data the way a drunkard uses a lamppost: for support rather than illumination. Or as Disraeli put it, there are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics. - Krugman Theories are testable where they are least needed, and are not testable where they are most needed. - Manski If you torture the data long enough, Nature will confess. - Coase There are two things you are better off not watching in the making: sausages and econometric estimates. - Leamer Doing

econometrics is like trying to learn the laws of electricity by playing the radio. -Guy Orcutt Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes. - Goodhart Time series regression studies give no sign of converging toward the truth. - Cagan Any time series regression containing more than four independent variables results in garbage -Zvi Griliches Forecasting is like trying to drive a car blindfolded and following directions given by a person who is looking out of the back

window -Anonymous Given the choice between Bob Solow and an econometric model to make forecasts, I'd choose Bob Solow; but I'd rather have Bob Solow with an econometric model, than Bob Solow without one - son Keep in mind the three most important aspects of real data analysis: compromise, compromise, and compromise. - Leamer The four golden rules of econometrics: 1.Think brilliantly, 2.Be infinitely creative, 3.Be outstandingly lucky, 4.Otherwise,

stick to being a theorist - Hendry A good empirical study requires three components: 1.A concise and sensible theoretical framework that is related to the questions to be asked, 2.Reasonably good data, and 3.An experiment or an event or a set of circumstances that give the data a chance to answer the questions asked. In short, the model needs to be identifiable from the data at hand. -Zvi Griliches terry tennille <t_tennille@...> wrote: --- TodaysgiftHazelden (DOT) info wrote:> Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2006 05:15:26 -0500 (CDT)> From: TodaysgiftHazelden (DOT) info> t_tennille > Subject: Today's Gift - 06/20/06> > Today's thought is: > > As he thinketh in his heart, so is he. > --Proverbs 23:7 > > How we view our circumstances directly affects how> we feel about them. Being in debt can cause us to> cast dark shadows over our world -- shadows that> create a sense of doom and gloom. I can't get out> from under it; I can't go on

vacation; I can't get> my hair cut, buy a shirt, go out to dinner, get> season tickets. I would go to school but . . . > > Most of us were told as children not to say can't> and to never say never. We rephrase our negative> thoughts and statements in the positive and in the> present, as if the positive already exists. Our> outlook and, amazingly, our circumstances brighten> considerably. Ideas about how to move forward pop> into our head, replacing excuses with a powerful> energy -- an energy that moves us toward> accomplishing our goals. > > Today I will ask myself whether I see the glass as> half empty or half full.> > > You are reading from the book: > > [>http://www.hazelden.org/OA_HTML/ibeCCtpItmDspRte.jsp?item=2695>

] > > *Letting Go of Debt by Casanova* [>http://www.hazelden.org/OA_HTML/ibeCCtpItmDspRte.jsp?item=2695> ] > > Copyright 2000 by Hazelden Foundation. All rights> reserved. Printed in the United States of America.> No portion of this publication may be reproduced in> any manner without the written permission of the> publisher. > > ********** > > Today's Gift daily emails are provided at no cost by> the Hazelden Foundation and are sent only to those> who sign up for them at www.hazelden.org.> > SUBSCRIPTION SERVICES:> > For instructions on how to change your email address> or take yourself off the mailing list, visit: >http://www.hazelden.org/servlet/hazelden/go?code=MAINTAIN> [>http://www.hazelden.org/servlet/hazelden/go?code=MAINTAIN> ] or write to todaysgifthazelden (DOT) org [> mailto:todaysgifthazelden (DOT) org ]> > To subscribe to Today's Gift, visit:> http://www.hazelden.org/register > > CONTACT INFORMATION:> Today's Gift feedback and questions -> todaysgifthazelden (DOT) org> Treatment program information - infohazelden (DOT) org> Bookstore information - customersupporthazelden (DOT) org> Or call us at 1-800-257-7810 (continental USA) > 651-213-4000 (outside USA)> > > > YOUR PRIVACY IS OUR PRIORITY:> Read our online privacy policy at:>http://www.hazelden.org/servlet/hazelden/go/privacypolicy> > The information contained in this electronic message> and any attachments are solely for the use of the> individual or entity to which it is addressed and> may contain information that is privileged,> confidential and/or exempt from disclosure under> applicable law. If you are not the intended> recipient, you are informed that any use,> dissemination, duplication or disclosure of the> material contained herein is strictly prohibited. If> you have received this

communication in error,> please notify the sender immediately and permanently> delete this message and any attachments from your> system without copying them.Paki

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